Shipments from China to the U.S. West Coast are expected to plummet by around 35% next week compared to a year ago, as President Trump’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods take effect. Consumers are expected to feel the pain — both in lack of supply and higher prices — as soon as this month.

From China to the U.S. alone, there’s been a 65% decline in sea-faring cargo shipments in just the three weeks since Trump’s massive tariffs — other countries have picked up the pace to soften the blow.

In an interview with Mo News, Craig Fuller, founder of FreightWaves, warns that consumers should start stocking up on some specific and specialty items now. Even if a deal is reached soon, it could still take weeks or months for orders to make their way to consumers.

DRIVING THE DROP
Many retailers have stopped all shipments from China. While some major retailers front-loaded shipments in anticipation of the tariffs, Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, warns that inventories may only last five to seven more weeks before store shelves thin out and prices rise for what’s left.

WHAT TO EXPECT
Large retailers like Walmart, Amazon, and Target will weather this best, Fuller says, as they’ve been able to prepare. Smaller brands and e-commerce shops will feel it the most. Many lack the resources or foresight to secure backup supply chains. He says now is a good time to get things like batteries, over-the-counter meds, and specialty items (like a specific fish hook or hair piece). China is also a major supplier of PPE, lithium ion batteries, furniture, apparel and baby products.

June: Just in time for the heat, we can expect air conditioners and parts for appliance repair could start to be in short supply.
August: Back-to-school shopping could see delays or missing items like backpacks, school supplies, and kids' clothes.
December holidays: Fuller says, “If you know the gift you want, buy it early” as low holiday stock is expected.

The silver lining: Unless you love a very specific fish or fruit from China, most of the food on Americans tables will not be impacted by what supply chain experts are seeing at the ports. BTW, the majority of toilet paper is also produced here.

ANY END IN SIGHT?
New economic numbers show that the U.S. is likely on its way to a recession — if not already there. From January to March, the U.S. economy shrank 0.3%, the first contraction in three years, as businesses rushed to get ahead of the tariffs.

The U.S. bought far more from other countries than it sold, and that gap dragged down overall growth by nearly 5 percentage points — the worst hit from net exports (the difference between what the U.S. imports and exports) in any quarter since records began in 1947.