Israel Increasingly Isolated As France, UK, Canada Announce They’ll Recognize Palestinian State

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Amid pressure on Israel to end the war in Gaza, international momentum appears to be building around recognition of a future Palestinian state — but with key caveats.

  • Canada became the latest G7 country to say it will recognize a Palestinian state if certain conditions are met: reforms to the Palestinian Authority, demilitarization of the Palestinian state, and a release of all the Israeli hostages still in Hamas captivity.

    • France and the United Kingdom also recently said they will recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations meeting in September — with the UK saying it will refrain if Israel promptly agrees to a ceasefire and a lasting peace plan.

Israel has called Canada’s move “a reward for Hamas” and harmful to ceasefire negotiations — arguing that Hamas will have less incentive to return hostages and disband if a Palestinian state is gaining international support. Most UN member states — 147 of 193 — already recognize a Palestinian state, even though it lacks official borders and has multiple governments (Hamas and the Palestinian Authority). Canada, France, and the UK would be the first G7 countries to do so.

STATE OF PLAY
Carney said Palestinian recognition is conditional on the Palestinian Authority, which currently rules over the West Bank, holding free and fair elections in 2026 that Hamas will have no part in. The Palestinian Authority has refused to hold an election for nearly 20 years, since 2006, for fear of Hamas winning given their popularity.

  • Critics in the US and Israel argue recognition should come only after Israeli and Palestinian leaders reach a negotiated peace deal, agree on borders, and resolve governance issues.

  • What recognition means: The move is largely symbolic, sending a diplomatic and political message to Israel, which could face further isolation on the world stage. Palestine will remain a UN observer state unless the U.S. drops its opposition to full membership.

Pressure to recognize a Palestinian state is growing in response to concern over human rights abuses amid Israel’s military operations in Gaza, as famine continues to worsen in the enclave.

ZOOM IN ON THE U.S.
Support for Israel’s war efforts in Gaza since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack has reached a new low — and lawmakers are reacting. Though the Senate voted down a resolution Wednesday to bar U.S. arms sales to Israel, support for the measure grew: twelve Democrats who previously backed arms sales to Israel supported the measure this time, signaling a shift.

  • Senator Jeanne Shaheen (NH), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, flipped her vote on the Sen. Bernie Sanders-backed resolution — from a no in April, to a yes this time.

    • “It is clear that the Government of Israel has not conducted its military operations in Gaza with the necessary care required by international humanitarian law. It is also clear that the Government of Israel has failed to allow adequate humanitarian assistance into Gaza, resulting in unbelievable suffering,” she explained.

Over to the Middle East, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is back in the region today for the first time in months, as pressure mounts over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and stalled ceasefire talks.

  • Witkoff is expected to visit Gaza aid centers to assess the situation on the ground and help determine how the U.S. can better support civilians.

  • Ceasefire negotiations remain frozen. Last week, both the U.S. and Israel walked away from talks, frustrated by what they said were unreasonable new demands from Hamas which wants to continue to retain power. Hamas currently refuses to return to negotiations.

ARAB LEAGUE CONDEMNS HAMAS
The 22-member countries of the Arab League for the first time on Tuesday publicly condemned Hamas for the October 7th massacre and called for the terrorist group to disarm and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority government.

  • The Arab League joined an agreement with the EU and 17 other countries at a UN conference that also calls for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders.

    • While some individual states in the Arab League have normalized relations with Israel in recent years, the league as a whole still has not formally recognized Israel’s right to exist.

    • Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said a two-state solution threatens Israel’s security.

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