Iran responded to the US attack on its nuclear sites by firing 14 missiles at the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar — the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East. President Trump confirmed that Tehran actually gave the U.S. advance notice of the strike, crediting it with preventing any casualties and causing “hardly any damage.”

Notably, the latest attack actually signals a potential de-escalation of the conflict 11 days after Israel began its military campaign to dismantle the country's nuclear program. The U.S. joined early Sunday morning local time by attacking three Iranian nuclear sites.

WHAT WE KNOW
Since the U.S. strikes, American officials have been preparing for retaliatory action by Iran. Trump was even scheduled to meet with his national security team around the time Iran launched short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles.

Prep for the attack: The Al Udeid Air Base, which serves as the forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command, was considered a prime target for Iran’s retaliation. President Trump recently gave a speech there during his visit to Qatar. The base, home to about 10,000 military and civilian personnel, is heavily fortified with air defenses that have been on high alert in recent days. Satellite imagery shows that all U.S. aircraft were evacuated from the base as of last week, as regional tensions escalated.
- Before the Iranian attack, the U.S. and U.K. warned its citizens in Qatar to shelter in place. Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq all closed their airspace in anticipation of the strikes.

With no casualties, it looks like there could be an off-ramp — similar to what happened in 2020 after Trump ordered the killing of Iran’s top general, Qasem Soleimani, and Iran gave a warning before it fired ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq.

Effectively this was Iran’s face-saving attempt to show its population it was responding to the weekend strike without actually doing much at all and risking a larger war with the US it was certain to lose. Bottom line: The US vs. Iran chapter of this war appears to be over.

WHAT’S NEXT
It’s unclear how much longer Israel will stay at war with Iran, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday night said Israel was “very, very close” to achieving its goal, which was to rid Iran of its nuclear program. On Monday, the Israeli military warned Iranian citizens that “in the coming days the Israeli army will continue its attacks against military targets in the Tehran region.”

The message came after the Israeli military launched what it called an “unprecedentedly powerful strike” in Iran on more than just nuclear and military sites, but expanding to symbolic pillars of the Islamic Republic — which Israeli officials described as symbols of “state oppression.”
- Israel struck the gates of Iran’s notorious Evin prison, hoping to aid prisoner escape. Evin houses regime opposition voices and people who protested the regime after the death of Mahsa Amini, who died in police custody in 2022 after being arrested over headscarf rules.
- It also hit the Basij morality police Headquarters, which enforces Islamic law and suppresses dissent, and a billboard that features a Countdown Clock to Israel’s Destruction in a main Tehran square.
  - Iranian media, however, claimed the countdown clock, which was installed in 2017, is still functioning. It ticks down to September 2040 when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei predicted that he will destroy Israel.
Israel also hit roads leading to the Fordow nuclear facility in an attempt to block access and stop the transfer of any materials. It comes one day after the U.S. bombed the underground site as part of a joint effort to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities — it's unclear the fate of Iran's uranium stockpile, however.

Investors appeared optimistic on Monday following the Iranian response. Stocks were up and oil prices fell more than 6 percent after Iran’s attack. Trump earlier in the day appeared to be keeping a close eye on those numbers, as a quarter of the world’s oil and 20% of its liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow 90-mile waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Iran had threatened to block shipping traffic in the strait, but that threat appears to have subsided.

ON REGIME CHANGE
There are growing questions about whether regime change is likely in Iran. It has been nearly half a century since the Islamic Regime of then-Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini took power. The country’s rulers are extremely unpopular, overseeing a sputtering economy, spending huge assets on arming terror groups in the region and having turned Iran into a global outcast. The regime has faced multiple uprisings in recent decades, including most recently the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022 and 2023.

Questions about whether Israel and the US will make a push for regime change were amplified by President Trump, who posted on Sunday: “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???”
The White House clarified Monday, that if there’s going to be regime change in Iran, it has to come from the Iranian people — which experts have also said is the only likely route to a new government in the country. The current war has showcased how weak the regime security apparatus is now, with Israel dominating the Iranian military. The hope: it could inspire a renewed effort within Iran for another revolution.

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