Trump Job Approval Hits New Low Ahead Of State Of The Union Address
President Trump is set to address a divided nation Tuesday for his State of the Union, as public disapproval of his agenda grows.
FIRST 400 DAYS: Since taking office last January, Trump's approval rating has dropped to levels not seen since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. A series of new polls shows his approval rating sitting around 36 to 39% — between a 6 to 12% drop since taking office.
Trump’s approval among independents has dropped 15 points to 26%, CNN notes — the lowest of either term.
The speech, which Trump warned is going to be long (he spoke for a record 99 minutes last year), is expected to address the recent Supreme Court tariffs ruling, military action overseas, affordability — central to the midterm elections — and immigration enforcement, one of the most polarizing issues of his second term.
Broken down by issue, the economy remains a major pressure point.
STATE OF PLAY: IMMIGRATION
Trump’s speech comes as the Department of Homeland Security is partially shut down over a standoff between the White House and Democrats about immigration reforms. It follows the killing of two U.S. citizens in Minnesota at the hands of immigration agents. The irony is that the DHS’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has enough funding to operate through the end of Trump’s second term.
BEST & WORST ISSUE: A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that about 8 in 10 people who approve of Trump’s second term mention immigration, while nearly 6 in 10 of those who disapprove of him also mention it— meaning, depending on who you ask, it’s either his best or worst issue.
We also expect Trump to blame Democrats for the three government shutdowns of his second term.
THE ECONOMY: WALL STREET VS. MAIN STREET
Republicans and Democrats are zeroing in on a message of affordability ahead of the midterm elections. Republicans are trying to keep control of the House and Senate; Democrats are trying to flip at least one chamber.
While Wall Street is hitting record highs, Main Street is still feeling the pain of higher prices and inflation. Trump’s worst approval rating is on inflation, sitting at 32%.
PRESSURING THE FED: Trump has pressed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in hopes of boosting the economy. However, policymakers have been cautious amid concerns that lowering rates will cause inflation to get worse. They have also been taking a wait and see approach on how Trump’s tariff policies — widely viewed by economists as a tax on consumers — could impact prices.
But, that’s changing. On Friday, the Supreme Court struck down many of Trump’s tariffs. While he is pushing to impose new ones, the tools available to him are now more limited.
We’ll be watching 👀 how Trump addresses the justices who attend in person. Last week, he called the six who ruled against him “fools.” At a press conference Friday, he said the justices are “barely invited” to the speech.
FOREIGN POLICY
Will the US soon attack Iran? We’ll be watching to see if the president gives any insight into his thinking amid threats that Iran is restarting its nuclear weapons program and building up its missile arsenal. U.S. fighter jets are within striking distance of Iran. In recent weeks, Trump has sent the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
UKRAINE
Tuesday marks four years since Russia invaded Ukraine. The latest round of U.S.-mediated negotiations in Geneva concluded last week with little concrete progress. The next round of talks is expected to be held by early March.
In a speech Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed American negotiators in Geneva had realized that the Russians were “the reason no truly meaningful results had yet been achieved.”
While Trump may highlight the eight wars he claims to have ended, we’ll see what he says about Ukraine — if anything.
DEMOCRATS SKIPPING THE SPEECH
More than two dozen Democrats plan to skip the State of the Union as a form of protest. Many are attending the “People’s State of The Union” counter-programming at 8:30 PM EST at the National Mall. Republicans have criticized Democrats for skipping the address, calling it a constitutional event.
REWIND: Last year, Rep. Al Green (D-TEX) was removed from the House Chamber after shouting and shaking his cane at Trump during the Congressional address.
Some Democrats feel those protests backfired in recent years — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has suggested members of his caucus either attend the event with “silent defiance” or participate in the alternate programming.
Virginia’s new Governor Abigail Spanberger will deliver the official Democratic response to Trump’s speech. A former member of Congress, she built a reputation as a centrist during her time on Capitol Hill.
📲 We’ll have live coverage of it all over on the Mo News Instagram page, or back here tomorrow