Iran Protests Diminish After Violent Suppression; U.S. Backs Off Strike Threats
After a sweeping Islamic regime crackdown leading to thousands of civilians killed, Iran’s protest movement has been forced into retreat after more than two weeks — at least for now — and the White House has cooled its warnings about possible strikes on Tehran.
Iran reopened its airspace Thursday after a brief closure Wednesday that sparked fears a U.S. strike was imminent. It remains unclear why Iranian authorities closed the airspace in the first place.
President Trump told reporters Wednesday that the “killing in Iran is stopping” –though he didn’t specify where that intelligence came from – and noticeably eased his rhetoric around U.S. intervention, without ruling it out completely.
State of play: Human rights groups estimate 2,000 to 12,000 protesters have been killed by the Islamic regime since demonstrations began about two weeks ago. However, an exact death toll remains unclear amid an ongoing communications blackout, after the authoritarian government shut down internet and phone lines last week.
BEHIND THE SCENES
On Thursday, Iran’s judiciary said it would not seek the death sentence for 26-year-old protester Erfan Soltani, whose pending execution had drawn international concern, including from Trump.
But behind the scenes, Trump was also advised that a military strike might not change outcomes on the ground — and could actually make the situation worse.
Advisers reportedly told Trump that even a major U.S. strike wouldn’t necessarily topple Iran’s regime, but could instead ignite a wider regional conflict and require enormous U.S. military resources to protect troops and allies, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Arab states including Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt – as well as Israelis officials – also urged restraint in recent days, warning Washington that a U.S. strike could trigger serious security and economic fallout.
In the clear? Not totally. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Thursday that Trump has not made a final decision on military action. Officials confirmed he requested military assets be put in place should the administration move forward with strikes.
WHAT’S NEXT?
Jason Rezaian, an Iranian-American Washington Post journalist who was jailed by the Iranian regime in Tehran for 18 months as a political prisoner, tells the Mo News Podcast that even if these demonstrations are quelled, he anticipates Iranians will be back on the streets demonstrating soon.
Rezaian spent 544 days in an Iranian prison, beginning in 2014. He was accused without evidence of illegally spying for America while working as a Tehran correspondent for the Post.
He was released in January 2016 and said his time in prison taught him more about Iran’s government than his years covering the country as a reporter.
In a conversation with Mosheh on the Mo News Podcast, Rezaian says he thinks this wave of protests are different than past ones: people feel they have nothing left to lose as the Iranian currency collapses, the country grows more isolated, and repression intensifies.
“They don’t feel like they have much to lose,” Rezaian tells Mosheh. “That is why people are so willing to go out and call for the end of this regime… Not just in urban centers, which is where most of the protests over the years have been, and not just in provinces that are dominated by ethnic minorities. I think this is the first time that you see all of those groups en masse coming together.”
Rezaian predicts continued unrest will expose deeper weaknesses in the already historically weak regime — and that eventually, its collapse could be inevitable. “And I hope that we’ll have thought through and planned for what to do in that eventuality,” he adds.
🎧 Listen to the full conversation with Jason Rezaian on the Mo News Podcast, available wherever you get your podcasts.