Election Day 2025: From Coast To Coast, Races That Could Shape The Political Map
Tomorrow is an election day in several U.S. states, and marks one year after Donald Trump retook the White House. There are some big races across the country, including the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, California’s redistricting ballot proposition, and the New York City mayoral race.
The results could offer an early gauge of President Trump’s popularity — and whether Democrats have momentum heading into next year’s midterms.
TIGHT RACES
Former President Barack Obama hit the campaign trail this weekend, stumping for Democratic candidates for governor — Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey — and also made a private phone call to NYC mayoral frontrunner Zohran Mamdani.
Polls show Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia. Democrat Sherrill is also besting Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey, but some polls show her lead as narrow as 1 percentage point in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-1.
Also in Virginia: Democrat Jay Jones is running to unseat incumbent Jason Miyares (R) in Virginia’s attorney general race. Jones had been leading in the polls until some of his old text messages re-surfaced from 2022, showing him fantasizing about shooting Republican House Speaker Todd Gilbert in messages sent to a GOP lawmaker. (Jones confirmed the texts were real and has publicly apologized.) Now, the race is a toss-up.
Meanwhile, the Republican National Committee and pro-Trump groups launched a “72-hour program” to mobilize low-propensity GOP voters, especially in New Jersey and Virginia. Trump hasn’t appeared in person in those states, though he did host tele-rallies last week and will be giving Republican candidates a final push Monday evening with tele-rallies from the Oval Office on election eve.
“We have to win the midterms,” Trump told Senate Republicans last month. “Otherwise, all of the things that we’ve done, so many of them, are going to be taken away by the radical left lunatics. I mean, we’re going to end up with a communist mayor in New York. Can you believe it?”
BIGGER PICTURE
Politicos are watching Tuesday’s elections for clues about what next year’s congressional midterms could look like. Wins in key states are critical to Trump’s second-term agenda. He’s pushed redistricting measures in about a dozen states to redraw maps in favor of Republicans, and help maintain their narrow House majority. Those efforts have been successful in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.
California’s Proposition 50 is the Democrats’ response to that and is expected to pass. It will redraw five Republican-held districts to favor Democrats, effectively countering Texas’s mid-decade GOP redistricting.
Pundits are also watching New York’s mayoral race as a sign of where the Democratic Party is headed — but it might not be that straight-forward.
As The Wall Street Journal writes, Democratic wins “will likely deliver a muddled verdict on a central debate in the party: Do Democrats need to be more moderate or more progressive if they want to win in next year’s midterm elections and beyond?”
Mamdani, a Democratic Socialist, leads former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, running as a centrist independent, by double digits. By contrast, Spanberger and Sherrill represent the more centrist wing of the party. But, the reality is their races may tell us more about the importance of candidate quality and ensuring they meet the needs of the voters in their states and cities.
The NYC of it: A record number of 18-29 year olds showed up to vote in NYC compared to previous off-year elections, and the number of early voters aged 18-49 outpaced voters above the age of 50. If the current pace continues, 2 million people are projected to cast their votes, which is nearly double the number of voters in the 2021 election and the highest turnout since 2.5 million New Yorkers went to the polls in 1969.
While the energy behind Mamdani’s campaign has galvanized progressives, New York City is very unique: registered Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 6 to 1, about 700 languages are spoken, and immigrants make up 37% of the city’s population.
Still, Mamdani is being compared to Trump: both have made big promises, use social media to their advantage, and have built distinct personal brands.
Trump weighs in: Trump told CBS’s Norah O’Donnell he was “better looking” than Mamdani when asked about the comparison. He then said he would have voted for Cuomo if in NYC. “If it’s gonna be between a bad Democrat and a Communist,” Trump said, “I’m gonna pick the bad Democrat all the time.”
Mamdani responded on Instagram: “Congratulations, Andrew Cuomo. I know how hard you worked for this.”
BEYOND THE COASTS
More than half of states have elections on Tuesday. And as Mosh often reminds us, the more local the election, the greater the impact your vote — and your voice — can have.
In Pennsylvania, voters will decide whether to retain three left-leaning justices on the state’s 5–2 liberal majority Supreme Court — a race that could have major implications for the 2028 presidential election in this key swing state. Millions of dollars have poured into the race as Republicans look to flip the court.
In Texas, sixteen candidates are on the ballot, fighting for late Rep. Sylvester Turner’s House seat.
Control of the Minnesota Senate and Virginia House of Delegates is also on the line.
Voters will weigh in on several ballot measures, including proposals on voting access and a “red flag” gun law in Maine and raising taxes for free school meals in Colorado. Texas voters will weigh in on 17 state constitutional amendments.
Mayoral elections are taking place in Detroit, Pittsburgh, Jersey City, Buffalo, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Cincinnati.
Stay tuned — Mo News will have results and analysis on our Instagram page Tuesday and Wednesday.