Iran After Khamenei: Who Comes Next?

Written By Guest User

Plus: Warmer Weather Ahead & Cheers To The Freakin' Weekend

Good afternoon,

Before we get to the news, here’s a taste of what we’re up to this weekend in our weekly Cheers To The Freakin’ Weekend section:

What We’re Watching:

What We’re Reading:

What We’re Eating:

Mo News Team

🚨 ONE IMPORTANT THING

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly: What Could Iran Look Like After This War?

President Trump warned Friday that the U.S. will not make a deal with the Iranian regime unless it agrees to an "unconditional surrender.”

  • “After that, and the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s), we, and many of our wonderful and very brave allies and partners, will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction,” Trump wrote.

    • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday that the regime is not currently interested in any ceasefire agreement.

While the U.S. has stated its goal is to rid Iran of nuclear capabilities, and that regime change is not a top priority, Iranian activists and Arab regional allies are urging Israel and the U.S. to “finish the job,” and do what it takes to end the Islamic regime’s nearly 50-year rule.

At the same time, President Trump has said this week he needs to be involved in picking Iran’s next leader.

JOURNALISTS ON THE WAR
Mosheh spoke this week with Iranian-American journalist Jason Rezaian, the former Washington Post Tehran bureau chief who spent over a year in Iranian captivity in the 2010s, about what the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could mean and what cracks might emerge inside the country’s security forces.

  • “THE SYSTEM GETS WOBBLIER AND WOBBLIER” Rezaian told Mo News that the Islamic Republic looks increasingly unstable. Not only is the Iranian regime unable to defend itself from foreign threats, but it also struggles to respond to the basic needs of the Iranian people.

    • Rezaian warned against assuming a fast collapse. In the region, regime breakdown has often meant long, painful civil conflict — not clean transitions.

“I don’t think we can say, this is going one way or the other with any certainty. But I do think that the system gets wobblier and wobblier, and less and less able to defend itself from foreign aggression, but also respond to the very basic and legitimate demands of Iranian people, which leads me to think it can’t be long for this war,” Rezaian said.

  • ‘IDEOLOGY-FIRST’ REGIME: Rezaian said Iran’s leadership has long prioritized ideology over national interest, even when it comes at enormous economic cost to the country.

    • He likened the regime’s embrace of ideology to a losing poker player. “You have a bunch of chips and you’re a seasoned player and you lose a bunch of hands and then you have a few options left. Are you going to bluff? Are you going to wait for the best hand? And at some point you go all in,” Rezaian said.

    • That all-or-nothing dynamic, he said, helps explain why Iran has continued to pursue its nuclear program despite decades of sanctions that have crippled its economy.

  • ON THE GROUND: Rezaian explained that when there is an external threat like this, the Iranian people “pay the brunt of that burden” — through civilian casualties and increased repression by the state, which fears an uprising. He said that Iranians are optimistic, yet skeptical.

    • “I think that there is a palpable sense of excitement and elation at the fact that the symbol and the person most responsible for the repression and death to tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of Iranians has been removed,” he said. “But I don’t think that there is any illusions about the fact that the structure of the Islamic Republic still exists.”

WHAT TO WATCH: A key indicator of the regime’s collapse would be whether divisions inside the regime start to deepen and produce defections, Rezaian said.

  • There are already signs that Iranian soldiers, police officers and members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are failing to report for duty as the war intensifies, according to Israeli intelligence sources.

Listen to our full conversation on Spotify and Apple.

BIG PICTURE
Mosheh spoke on Thursday with independent Iranian-American journalist Suzanne Kianpour, who has spent years covering Iran for the BBC. (Full conversation)

  • WAR WITH IRAN IS NOTHING NEW: Kianpour emphasized that this week was only an escalation a war that has lasted decades — the U.S. has already been in a covert war with Iran since the Islamic Regime took over in 1979.

    • “We’ve been at war with Iran for 47 years. And it’s just been covert, it’s been targeted assassinations, it’s been cyber warfare, it’s been proxy militias,” she said.

    • What makes things different now, she said, is the divided reaction inside Iran itself. Some Iranians despise the regime so deeply that they quietly welcome pressure on it. At the same time, there is fear about what comes next: “they think that a war is going to lead to a failed state.”

  • REJECTION OF THEOCRACY: Another aspect making Kianpour optimistic about regime change in Iran? Young people. Kianpour emphasized that Gen Z Iranians were more skeptical of Islam and were embracing cultures that predate the Islamic takeover of the state, such as Zoroastrianism.

    • A more secular public could make young Iranians more eager to push back against the Islamic theocracy.

  • WHAT COMES NEXT? Kianpour also emphasized that Iranians are relieved after the death of the Supreme Leader, “but at the same time are very angry about [what] they think a war is going to lead to: a failed state.”

    • Kianpour said Iran’s economic collapse had already created conditions that could trigger more defections from the Iranian military and pressure on the regime, as fewer security personnel will be getting paid.

    • At the same time, she warned about reports that the US is arming and funding Kurdish militias, concerned it may lead to a version of the sectarian conflict that took place for years in Iraq.

⏳ THE SPEED READ

🚨NATION

  • DOJ releases Epstein files that include sexual assault allegation against Trump (MO NEWS)

  • Trump administration says it can’t comply with order to start tariff refunds (AXIOS)

  • Former Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden honor late Rev. Jesse Jackson at Friday service (NBC)

  • Man charged with aggravated murder in killings of three women in Utah (KUTV)

🌎 AROUND THE WORLD

  • Latest evidence suggests U.S. strike hit Iranian school next to IRGC military base (MO NEWS)

  • Hungary detains 7 Ukrainians and seizes $80 million cash shipment. Kyiv calls move ‘taking hostages’ (AP)

  • Men arrested on suspicion of aiding Iran by spying on Jewish community (ABC)

  • UK Telegraph sold for $770m as German buyer elbows out Daily Mail (GUARDIAN)

📱BUSINESS, SCIENCE & TECH

  • U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4% (MO NEWS)

  • Anthropic launches AI job destruction detector (AXIOS)

  • Mark Zuckerberg says criminal behavior on Facebook inevitable (GUARDIAN)

  • Ford recalls over 1.7M vehicles over rearview camera issues (USA TODAY)

🎬 SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT

  • The Opera and Ballet community respond after Timothée Chalamet says “No one cares about” ballet or opera (HOLLYWOOD REPORTER)

  • Daryl Hannah issues scathing response to portrayal of her on TV series about Kennedy and Bessette (AP)

  • Fans camp for hours ahead of Harry Styles’ pop-up store opening in LA (NBC)

  • Former ‘Below Deck’ star alleges sexual harassment, sues network for $850 million (USA TODAY)

  • Celtics’ Jayson Tatum available to return Friday, after tearing Achilles last year (ESPN)

ICYMI FROM THE 📲

In case you missed it… After cold and record-breaking snow storms this winter, the central and eastern U.S. are about to get much warmer.

At least 80 million people in the U.S. can expect temperatures in the 80s°F at some point in the next week. ☀️😎

Guest User
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